Regression Analyses from Part II - The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life - Richard J. Herrnstein, Charles Murray

The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life - Richard J. Herrnstein, Charles Murray (1996)

Appendix 4. Regression Analyses from Part II

This appendix presents the logistic regressions for the figures in Chapters 5 through 12. In the text, the figures are based on regressions that use the entire white sample in the NLSY and are calculated using sample weights. We use the entire sample and weights to take advantage of the NLSY’s supplemental sample of low-income whites; in our judgment, doing so provides the best available estimates of the relationships we discuss. But interpreting standard errors and statistical significance is greatly complicated when using sample weights. In the regression results that follow, we therefore restrict the analyses to the nationally representative cross-sectional sample of whites. This procedure not only enables direct interpretation of the standard errors but also provides the raw material for interested readers to see how much difference there is between the results from the entire white sample and the cross-sectional sample (which you may do by computing the probabilities for the cross-sectional sample and comparing them to the ones shown in the text figures). We have done so ourselves and can report that the differences are so small that they are seldom visually evident.

By “whites,” we mean all NLSY subjects who were identified as “non-black, non-Hispanic” in the NLSY’s racial/ethnic cohort screening (variable R2147, in the NLSY’s documentation), deleting those who identified themselves as being of American Indian, Asian, or Pacific descent in the “first or only racial/ethnic origin” item (R96).

In the text, we do not refer to the usual measure of goodness of fit for multiple regressions, R2, but they are presented here for the cross-sectional analyses. As the ratio of the explained sum of squares to the total sum of squares, R2 is in this instance the square of the correlation between the set of independent variables and the dependent variable expressed as the logarithm of the odds ratio. Inasmuch as the values of R2 range widely in the tables to follow, some mention of them is warranted.

The size of R2 tells something about the strength of the logistic relationship between the dependent variable and the set of independent variables, but it also depends on the composition of the sample, as do correlation coefficients in general. Even an inherently strong relationship can result in low values of R2 if the data points are bunched in various ways, and relatively noisy relationships can result in high values if the sample includes disproportionate numbers of outliers. For example, one of the smallest R2 in the following analyses, only .017, is for white men out of the labor force for four weeks or more in 1989. Apart from the distributional properties of the data that produce this low R2, a rough common-sense meaning to keep in mind is that the vast majority of NLSY white men were in the labor force even though they had low IQs or deprived socioeconomic backgrounds. But the parameter for zAFQT in that same equation is significant beyond the .001 level and large enough to make a big difference in the probability that a white male would be out of the labor force. This illustrates why we therefore consider the regression coefficients themselves (and their associated p values) to suit our analytic purposes better than R2, and that is why those are the ones we relied on in the text.

The standard independent variables, described in Appendix 2, are zAFQT89, the 1989 scoring of the AFQT; zSES, the socioeconomic background of the NLSY subjects; and zAge, based on the age of the NLSY subjects as of December 31, 1990. All are expressed as standard scores with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.

All dependent variables are binary. The coefficients are parameter estimates when the dependent variable = “yes.” The linear logistic model has the form

logit(p) = log(p/(1−p)) = α + ß′x

where α is the intercept parameter and ß is the vector of slope parameters for a vector of independent variables x. Take as an example the first set of results presented subsequently, involving poverty. Suppose you want to know the probability that a person is under the poverty line in 1989 (Poverty = “Yes”), stipulating that the person in question has an IQ (zAFQT) 1.5 standard deviations below the mean, socioeconomic background (zSES) .3 standard deviation above the mean, and is exactly of mean age. Using the parameters in the basic analysis for poverty rounded to four decimal places, and a computationally convenient re-expression of p, the probability is computed as follows:

Imag

The probability we set out to compute is 18.37 percent.

“The High School Sample” consists of those who received a high school diploma through the normal route (not a GED) and reported exactly twelve years of education as of the 1990 interview.

“The College Sample” consists of those who completed a bachelor’s degree and reported exactly sixteen years of education as of the 1990 interview.

The software used for the analyses is JMP Version 3, by SAS Institute Inc. JMP treats nominal independent variables differently from other major software packages such as SAS and SPSS. In those packages, a parameter for a nominal variable represents the difference between that level of the nominal variable and an omitted level serving as a reference group. In JMP, a parameter represents the difference of a given level from the average over all levels of the nominal variable. The implied parameter for the remaining level is the negative sum of the other levels (i.e., the parameters sum to zero over all the effect levels). For example, suppose Race were being used as a nominal variable, with categories of Black, Latino, and White. In the JMP printout, the coefficients would appear as

Race[Black-White]

x1

Race [Latino-White]

x2

The order is determined by the alphabetical order of the categories. In this case, the coefficient x1 applies to blacks, x2 to Latinos. The implied White coefficient is −1 × (x1 + x2). In the case of a binary independent variable such as Sex, the printout would show a single line

Sex [Female-Male] x1

which applies to females. The coefficient for Male equals −x1.

CHAPTER 5: POVERTY

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Under the official poverty line in 1989.

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Excludes those who reported they were out of the labor force because they were in school in either the 1989 or 1990 interviews.

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prot>ChiSq

Model

3

90.94009

181.8802

0.000000

Error

3363

784.40179

C Total

3366

875.34188

RSquare (U)

0.1039

Observations

3367

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.6487288

0.0768803

1187

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.8376338

0.0935061

80.25

0.0000

zSES

−0.3300720

0.0900996

13.42

0.0002

zAge

−0.0238375

0.0723735

0.11

0.7419

The High School Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

22.01811

44.03622

0.000000

Error

1232

325.26939

C Total

1235

347.28750

RSquare (U)

0.0634

Observations

1236

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.7237775

0.1290286

445.63

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.8267293

0.1627358

25.81

0.0000

zSES

−0.3619703

0.1499855

5.82

0.0158

zAge

+0.1049227

0.1094603

0.92

0.3378

The College Sampk: Omitted. Only six persons in the cross-sectional College Sample were in poverty.

For Mothers Married as of the 1989 Interview:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

17.14553

34.29106

0.000000

Error

786

179.84999

C Total

789

196.99552

RSquare (U)

0.0870

Observations

790

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.7732817

0.1646023

283.87

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.6437797

0.2140132

9.05

0.0026

zSES

−0.3910629

0.2020317

3.75

0.0529

zAge

−0.3338674

0.1587605

4.42

0.0355

For MothersWho Were Separated, Divorced, or Never Married as of the1989 Interview:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

8.07114

16.14228

0.001060

Error

211

135.77658

C Total

214

143.84772

RSquare (U)

0.0561

Observations

215

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−0.7449132

0.1713794

18.89

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.6722121

0.2277019

8.72

0.0032

zSES

−0.1597461

0.1952709

0.67

0.4133

zAge

−0.1524315

0.1530986

0.99

0.3194

CHAPTER 6: SCHOOLING

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Permanently dropped out of high school.

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Excludes those who obtained a GED.

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

393.8978

787.7956

0.000000

Error

3568

779.9904

C Total

3571

1173.8882

RSquare (U)

0.3355

Observations

3572

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.85322606

0.0939659

922.00

0.0000

zAFQT89

−1.72295934

0.1028145

280.83

0.0000

zSES

−0.64776232

0.0896658

52.19

0.0000

zAge

+0.05695640

0.0688286

0.68

0.4079

Basic Analysis, Adding an Interaction Term for zAFQT and zSES:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

4

399.9876

799.9751

0.000000

Error

3567

773.9006

C Total

3571

1173.8882

RSquare (U)

0.3407

Observations

3572

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.9143231

0.1029462

801.41

0.0000

zAFQT89

−1.8937642

0.1188518

253.89

0.0000

zSES

−0.9402389

0.1250634

56.52

0.0000

zAge

+0.0522667

0.0682755

0.59

0.4440

zAFQT89*zSES

−0.4133224

0.1187879

12.11

0.0005

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Received a GED instead of a high school diploma.

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Excludes those who obtained neither a high school diploma nor a GED.

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

72.06475

144.1295

0.000000

Error

3490

915.28145

C Total

3493

987.34620

RSquare (U)

0.0730

Observations

3494

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.3548461

0.0653867

1297

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.4325254

0.0851185

25.82

0.0000

zSES

−0.6082151

0.0837515

52.74

0.0000

zAge−

0.0416441

0.0662445

0.40

0.5296

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Received a bachelor’s degree.

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Excludes those who had less than a bachelor’s degree and were in postsecondary education in either the 1989 or 1990 interview.

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

807.9072

1615.814

0.000000

Error

3817

1364.3417

C Total

3820

2172.2489

RSquare (U)

0.3719

Observations

3821

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.41992250

0.0786991

945.50

0.0000

zAFQT89

+1.80771403

0.0795537

516.34

0.0000

zSES

+1.04818417

0.0690372

230.52

0.0000

zAge

−0.29777760

0.0516373

33.25

0.0000

CHAPTER 7: UNEMPLOYMENT, IDLENESS, AND INJURY

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Out of the labor force for four weeks or more in 1989.

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Civilian males who did not respond “unable to work” or “in school” to the question on labor force participation in the 1989 or 1990 interview.

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

9.44293

18.88586

0.000289

Error

1682

548.25144

C Total

1685

557.69437

RSquare (U)

0.0169

Observations

1686

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.20264085

0.0868001

643.94

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.36246881

0.0992802

13.33

0.0003

zSES

+0.21788340

0.1075722

4.10

0.0428

zAge

−0.12815393

0.0864018

2.20

0.1380

The High School Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

4.45831

8.916625

0.030420

Error

617

156.98046

C Total

620

161.43878

RSquare (U)

0.0276

Observations

621

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.69780012

0.1767563

232.95

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.42151253

0.2264362

3.47

0.0627

zSES

+0.56489480

0.230053

6.03

0.0141

zAge

−0.14556950

0.1672623

0.76

0.3841

The College Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

6.794337

13.58867

0.003522

Error

264

56.536860

C Total

267

63.331196

RSquare (U)

0.1073

Observation

268

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>Sq

Intercept

−3.12957075

0.6081769

26.48

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.84324247

0.4526768

3.47

0.0625

zSES

+0.94514750

0.3875388

5.95

0.0147

zAge

−0.46061574

0.299044

2.37

0.1235

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Unemployed for four weeks or more in 1989.

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Civilian males who did not respond “unable to work” or “in school” to the question on labor force participation in the 1989 or 1990 interview and were in the labor force throughout 1989.

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

11.30841

22.61682

0.000049

Error

1393

348.71511

C Total

1396

360.02353

RSquare(U)

0.0314

Observations

1397

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.53577016

0.1076083

555.30

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.49486463

0.1298967

14.51

0.0001

zSES

−0.02534849

0.1383889

0.03

0.8547

zAge

−0.02181428

0.1108396

0.04

0.8440

The High School Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

1.86533

3.730657

0.292056

Error

533

140.49123

C Total

536

142.35656

RSquare(U)

0.0131

Observations

537

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.59878187

0.1766146

216.51

0.0000

zAFQT89

−039353140

0.2368752

2.76

0.0966

zSES

+0.13951940

0.2353179

0.35

0.5532

zAge

−0.10510566

0.1762471

0.36

0.5509

The College Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

3.570096

7.140193

0.067561

Error

224

40.506133

C Total

227

44.076230

RSquare (U)

0.0810

Observations

228

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−3.1686886

0.7276735

18.96

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.9196886

0.5641635

2.66

0.1031

zSES

+1.0039255

0.5015717

4.01

0.0453

zAge

+0.2941965

0.3311174

0.79

0.3743

CHAPTER 8: FAMILY MATTERS

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Ever married before the age of 30.

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Persons who turned thirty by the 1990 interview.

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

6.43345

12.8669

0.004933

Error

1630

839.76747

C Total

1633

846.20092

RSquare (U)

0.0076

Observations

1634

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

+1.19841361

0.128902

86.44

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.0473587

0.0757854

0.39

0.5320

zSES

−0.1905526

0.0786307

5.87

0.0154

zAge

+0.20403379

0.1290545

2.50

0.1139

The High School Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

6.92871

13.857

0.003106

Error

601

259.40296

C Total

604

266.33168

RSquare (U)

0.0260

Observations

605

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

+1.41494853

0.2342703

36.48

0.0000

zAFQT89

+0.51424443

0.1598383

10.35

0.0013

zSES

−0.1128845

0.1582799

.51

0.4757

zAge

+0.36827169

0.2422543

2.31

0.1285

The College Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

0.17181

0.343616

0.951627

Error

233

145.35748

C Total

236

145.52929

RSquare (U)

0.0012

Observations

237

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

+0.71372375

0.3946174

3.27

0.0705

zAFQT89

+0.05013859

0.2237528

0.05

0.8227

zSES

+0.0968295

0.1833680

0.28

0.5975

zAge

−0.0177807

0.2950863

0.00

0.9520

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Divorced within the first five years of marriage.

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Persons married prior to January 1, 1986.

Basic Analysis, Adding Date of First Marriage (MarDate 1):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

4

21.8881

43.77626

0.000000

Error

2026

991.3719

C Total

2030

1013.2600

RSquare (U)

0.0216

Observations

2031

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

+5.70860970

1.9858067

8.26

0.0040

zAFQT89

−0.35734009

0.0781258

20.92

0.0000

zSES

+0.22195410

0.0787612

7.94

0.0048

zAge

−0.17766944

0.0741478

5.74

0.0166

MarDatel

−0.08677335

0.0243113

12.74

0.0004

The High School Sample, Adding Date of First Marriage (MarDate 1):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

−LogLikihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

4

3.54304

7.086073

0.131409

Error

870

428.70643

C Total

874

432.24947

RSquare (U)

0.0082

Observations

875

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

+5.4451395

3.1286887

3.03

0.0818

zAFQT89

−0.0379171

0.1348129

1.08

0.7785

zSES

+0.2206925

0.1288222

2.93

0.0867

zAge

−0.1078057

0.1146773

0.88

0.3472

MarDatel

−0.0839950

0.0383236

4.80

0.0284

The College Sample, Adding Date of First Marriage (MarDate 1):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

4

5.548154

11.09631

0.025503

Error

204

48.414468

C Total

208

53.962623

RSquare (U)

0.1028

Observations

209

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

+32.392875

13.508886

5.75

0.0165

zAFQT89

−0.75619367

0.4502182

2.82

0.0930

zAge

−0.55875424

0.4046911

1.91

0.1674

MarDatel

−0.41113710

0.1629791

6.36

0.0116

Basic analysis, Adding Parental Living Arrangements at Age 14 (Adultl4):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

6

16.7457

33.49136

0.000008

Error

2022

994.6771

C Total

2028

1011.4228

RSquare (U)

0.0166

Observations

2029

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−1.2952650

0.1066175

147.59

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.3925580

0.0774209

25.71

0.0000

zSES

+0.1910425

0.0783345

5.95

0.0147

zAge

−0.0278086

0.0617722

0.20

0.6526

Adult14

[2 Bio−UnmarMom]

−0.1472662

0.117616

1.57

0.2105

Adult14

[Bio/Step−UnmarMom]

+0.0621918

0.1601525

0.15

0.6978

Adult14

[Other−UnmarMom]

−0.0872024

0.2553089

0.12

0.7327

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: First birth out of wedlock.

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Women with at least one child.

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

39.86862

79.73723

0.000000

Error

1217

461.90618

C Total

1220

501.77480

RSquare (U)

0.0795

Observations

1221

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−1.9432320

0.0938185

429.01

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.6537960

0.1239489

27.82

0.0000

zSES

−0.3052597

0.1189878

6.58

0.0103

zAge

−0.2405246

0.0902516

7.10

0.0077

The High School Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

15.09449

30.18898

0.000001

Error

512

187.89956

C Total

515

202.99405

RSquare (U)

0.0744

Observations

516

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.1890354

0.1658602

174.19

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.7846895

0.2142378

13.42

0.0002

zSES

−0.2428727

0.2165927

1.26

0.2621

zAge

−0.4145066

0.1447961

8.20

0.0042

The College Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

1.1299340

2.259868

0.520253

Error

112

4.6193334

C Total

115

5.7492674

RSquare(U) 0.1965

Observations 116

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−6.37685240

3.9705049

2.58

0.1083

zAFQT89

−0.31644570

1.9844225

0.03

0.8733

zSES

−0.72608390

1.5248314

0.23

0.6340

zAge

+2.58214793

2.8423709

0.83

0.3636

Basic analysis, Adding Living Arrangements with Adults at Age 14 (Adult 14):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

6

46.62389

93.24777

0.000000

Error

1214

455.15091

C Total

1220

501.77480

RSquare (U)

0.0929

Observations

1221

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−1.8260275

0.1541482

140.33

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.6620720

0.1259903

27.61

0.0000

zSES

−0.2460336

0.1221771

4.06

0.0440

zAge

−0.2109268

0.0909302

5.38

0.0204

Adult14

[2 Bio−UnmarMom]

−0.2816545

0.1634249

2.97

0.0848

Adult14

[Bio/Step−UnmarMom]

+0.2928507

0.206926

2.00

0.1570

Adult14

[Other−UnmarMom]

−0.4991684

0.3593261

1.93

0.1648

Basic analysis, Adding Presence of Biological Parents at Age 14 (14Bio):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

6

47.56391

95.12783

0.000000

Error

1214

454.21088

C Total

1220

501.77480

RSquare (U)

0.0948

Observations

1221

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.0199123

0.2037839

98.25

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.6567746

0.1250691

27.58

0.0000

zSES

−0.2479794

0.1214895

4.17

0.0412

zAge

−0.2037178

0.0910296

5.01

0.0252

14Bio

[MomOnly−PopOnly]

+0.6528652

0.2233927

8.54

0.0035

14Bio

[Mom/Pop−PopOnly]

−0.0862208

0.2102335

0.17

0.6817

14Bio[Neither−PopOnly]

−0.2371231

0.4150982

0.33

0.5678

Basic Analysis, Adding Poverty Status in the Calendar Year Prior to Birth (PreBirthPov):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

4

63.21118

126.4224

0.000000

Error

956

292.73717

C Total

960

355.94835

RSquare (U)

0.1776

Observations

961

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−1.6785743

0.1460018

132.18

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.6300049

0.1665952

14.30

0.0002

zSES

−0.1828877

0.1513393

1.46

0.2269

zAge

−0.4759393

0.127232

13.99

0.0002

PreBirthPov

A

[No−Yes]

−0.8178684

0.1266496

41.70

0.0000

Basic Analysis, Restricted to Women Below the Poverty Line in the Calendar Year Prior to Birth:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

3.005867

6.011735

0.111041

Error

95

65.003329

C Total

98

68.009196

RSquare (U)

0.0442

Observations

99

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−0.65306390

0.2901964

5.06

0.0244

zAFQT89

−0.76887410

0.3453889

4.96

0.0260

zSES

+0.17993445

0.2589166

0.48

0.4871

zAge

−0.13622880

0.2289764

0.35

0.5519

CHAPTER 9: WELFARE DEPENDENCY

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: On welfare by the first calendar year after the birth of the child.

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Women with at least one child born prior to January 1, 1989.

Basic Analysis, Adding Poverty Status in the Year Prior to Birth (PreBirthPov) and Marital Status at the Time of the Birth (BStatus):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

5

100.37993

200.7599

0.000000

Error

833

221.75844

C Total

838

322.13837

RSquare (U)

0.3116

Observations

839

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−1.03594055

0.1713324

36.56

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.57972844

0.1892548

9.38

0.0022

zSES

−0.06130137

0.1746782

0.12

0.7256

zAge

−0.11269946

0.1457313

0.60

0.4393

PreBirthPov

[No−Yes]

−0.89960808

0.1446041

38.70

0.0000

BStatus

[Illegit−Legit]

+1.05258560

0.1352006

60.61

0.0000

The High School Sample, Adding Poverty Status in the Year Prior to Birth (PreBirthPov) and Marital Status at the Time of theBirth (BStatus):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

5

29.28354

58.56707

0.000000

Error

384

108.14153

C Total

389

137.42507

RSquare (U)

0.2131

Observations

390

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−1.44834110

0.2659616

29.41

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.60735910

0.3004261

4.09

0.0432

zSES

+0.12094082

0.3096641

0.15

0.6961

zAge

−0.24139690

0.2089849

1.33

0.2481

PreBirthPov

[No−Yes]

−0.67898980

0.223275

9.25

0.0024

BStatus

[Illegit−Legit]

+0.80812194

0.2058033

15.42

0.0001

The College Sample: Omitted. Included no women who had received Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) within a year after the birth.

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: On welfare for at least five years versus women with no welfare experience at all.

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Women with at least one child born prior to January 1, 1986. For women scored as “no welfare,” child born after December 31, 1977 and complete data on welfare receipt from 1978 to 1986.

Basic Analysis, Adding Poverty Status in the Year Prior to Birth (PreBirthPov) and Marital Status at the Time of the Birth(BStatus):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

5

44.82635

89.65269

0.000000

Error

493

96.90156

C Total

498

141.72790

RSquare (U)

0.3163

Observations

499

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−1.5840878

0.2826002

31.42

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.5506878

0.2950687

3.48

0.0620

zSES

−0.4921959

0.2779368

3.14

0.0766

zAge

−0.1094338

0.2276355

0.23

0.6307

PreBirthPov

[No−Yes]

−0.7636358

0.2336359

10.68

0.0011

BStatus

[Illegit−Legit]

+1.1951879

0.205013

33.99

0.0000

The High School Sample, Adding Poverty Status in the Year Prior to Birth (PreBirthPov) and Marital Status at the Time of theBirth (BStatus):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

5

13.898589

27.79718

0.000040

Error

251

48.695997

C Total

256

62.594585

RSquare (U)

0.2220

Observations

257

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−1.7786656

0.3901684

20.78

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.2301309

0.4429317

0.27

0.6034

zSES

−0.3131157

0.4832739

0.42

0.5170

zAge

−0.0377430

0.3173131

0.01

0.9053

PreBirthPov

[No-Yes]

−0.6891978

0.3355851

4.22

0.0400

BStatus

[Illegit-Legit]

+1.1068557

0.307595

12.95

0.0003

The College Sample: Omitted. The cross-sectional College Sample included no women who were on chronic welfare within a year after the birth.

CHAPTER 10: PARENTING

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Did the mother smoke during pregnancy?

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: None.

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

84.6762

169.3523

0.000000

Error

2338

1443.8251

C Total

2341

1528.5013

RSquare (U)

0.0554

Observations

2342

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−0.65729780

0.0465003

199.81

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.63479220

0.0645408

96.74

0.0000

zSES

−0.13376440

0.0604787

4.89

0.0270

zAge

+0.09727632

0.0484283

4.03

0.0446

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Low birth weight (weight less than 5.5 pounds at birth).

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Excludes premature babies whose weight was less than 5.5 lbs. but was appropriate for gestational age.

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

6.55199

13.10397

0.004417

Error

2273

349.79375

C Total

2276

356.34574

RSquare (U)

0.0184

Observations

2277

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−3.40600010

0.1270004

719.25

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.44308170

0.1496847

8.76

0.0031

zSES

+0.03312669

0.1492929

0.05

0.8244

zAge

+0.26896236

0.1226929

4.81

0.0284

Basic Analysis, Adding Poverty Status in the Year Prior to Birth (PreBirth-Pov):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

4

9.09299

18.18599

0.001135

Error

1859

298.98002

C Total

1863

308.07301

RSquare (U)

0.0295

Observations

1864

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−3.12509860

0.16455

360.69

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.45583800

0.1674174

7.41

0.0065

zSES

+0.02995737

0.1628609

0.03

0.8541

zAge

+0.34292817

0.1342861

6.52

0.0107

PreBirthPov

[No-Yes]

−0.28644950

0.15725

3.32

0.0685

Basic Analysis, Adding Mother’s Age at Birth (AgeBirth):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

4

6.77955

13.55909

0.008844

Error

2272

349.56619

C Total

2276

356.34574

RSquare (U)

0.0190

Observations

2277

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−3.90965790

0.7617514

26.34

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.46251520

0.1522804

9.22

0.0024

zSES

+0.01584480

0.1517047

0.01

0.9168

zAge

+0.25360789

0.1252257

4.10

0.0428

AgeBirth

+0.02095854

0.0311104

0.45

0.5005

The High School Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

1.96999

3.93998

0.268019

Error

944

179.09080

C Total

947

181.06079

RSquare (U)

0.0109

Observations

948

Parameter Estimates:

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−3.1278597

0.1778908

309.16

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.3560319

0.2387034

2.22

0.1358

zSES

+0.0653651

0.2379847

0.08

0.7836

zAge

+0.2490558

0.1681270

2.19

0.1385

The College Sample: Omitted. The cross-sectional College Sample included only four low-birth-weight babies.

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: The child’s mother was under the poverty line throughout the child’s first three years of life.

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Includes children born from January 1, 1978 through December 31, 1987, with complete data on poverty for the first three years of the child’s life, beginning with the calendar year of birth. Comparison group consists of children of mothers who were not in poverty in any of those years.

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

79.84242

159.6848

0.000000

Error

1054

246.63029

C Total

1057

326.47271

RSquare (U)

0.2446

Observations

1058

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.9319316

0.1679177

304.87

0.0000

zAFQT89

−1.1608860

0.1893877

37.57

0.0000

zSES

−1.0386253

0.1734586

35.85

0.0000

zAge

−0.1837537

0.1320334

1.94

0.1640

Basic Analysis, Adding Poverty Status in the Year Prior to Birth (PreBirthPov):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

4

13338437

266.7687

0.000000

Error

967

161.88379

C Total

971

295.26816

RSquare(U)

0.4517

Observations

972

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−1.9685017

0.2117444

86.43

0.0000

zAFQT89

−1.0772447

0.2375948

20.56

0.0000

zSES

−0.8977385

0.2215879

16.41

0.0001

zAge

+0.0117316

0.1681889

0.00

0.9444

PreBirthPov

[No-Yes]

−1.7345986

0.1635206

112.53

0.0000

The High School Sample, Adding Poverty Status in the Year Prior to Birth (PreBirthPov):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

4

68.47634

136.9527

0.000000

Error

472

75.99609

C Total

476

144.47243

RSquare (U)

0.4740

Observations (or Sum Wgts)

477

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−1.9504069

0.3232654

36.40

0.0000

zAFQT89

−1.2253622

0.4168866

8.64

0.0033

zSES

−0.5574476

0.3852681

2.09

0.1479

zAge

0.05808314

0.252284

0.05

0.8179

PreBirthPov

[No-Yes]

−2.0368386

0.236268

74.32

0.0000

The College Sample: Omitted. The cross-sectional College Sample included only one child whose mother was beneath the poverty line throughout the first three years.

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: The child’s HOME index score was in the bottom decile.

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: None.

ADDITIONAL CONTROL VARIABLES: Test year (TestYr, nominal: 1986, 1988, or 1990) and the child’s age category for scoring the HOME index (HomeAgeCat, nominal, in years: 0/2, 3/5, 6+).

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

7

88.9225

177.8451

0.000000

Error

5114

1190.6267

C Total

5121

1279.5492

RSquare (U)

0.0695

Observations

5122

Patameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercep

−2.8430001

0.0687859

1708.3

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.6710186

0.0765998

76.74

0.0000

zSES

−0.2383458

0.0800828

8.86

0.0029

zAge

−0.1428139

0.062902

5.15

0.0232

TestYr.

[86-901]

+0.0128625

0.0858087

0.02

0.8808

TestYr.

[88-90]

−0.0414196

0.0798373

0.27

0.6039

HomeAgeCat

[0/2-6+]

+03225819

0.081541

15.65

0.0001

HomeAgeCat

[3/5-6+]

−0.1338273

0.0852061

2.47

0.1163

Basic Analysis, Adding Poverty Status in the Year Before the HOME Index was Scored (PreTYPov):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

8

116.4719

232.9438

0.000000

Error

4655

1049.6688

C Total

4663

1166.1407

RSquare (U)

0.0999

Observations

4664

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.5413180

0.0768882

1092.4

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.5717052

0.0847651

45.49

0.0000

zSES

−0.1646842

0.0848268

3.77

0.0522

zAge

−0.0836204

0.0673282

1.54

0.2142

TestYr

[86-90]

Unstable

+0.0068172

0.0900515

0.01

0.9397

TestYr

[88-90]

−0.0538353

0.0851491

0.40

0.5272

HomeAge

Cat[0/2-6+]

+03100371

0.0867081

12,79

0.0003

HomeAge

Cat[3/5-6+]

−0.0968535

0.0892661

1.18

0.2779

PreTYPov

[NO-Yes]

−0.5366001

0.0664395

65.23

0.0000

Basic Analysis, Adding AFDC Status in the Year Before the HOME Index Was Scored (PreTYDAC):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

8

120.4866

240.9733

0.000000

Error

5101

11503749

C Total

5109

1270.8615

RSquare (U)

0.0948

Observations

5110

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.4639335

0.0797203

955.26

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.5835098

0.078223

55.65

0.0000

zSES

−0.1973545

0.0813485

5.89

0.0153

zAge

−0.0908713

0.0644499

1.99

0.1586

TestYr[86-90]

−0.0105341

0.0872339

0.01

0.9039

TestYr[88-90]

−0.0232495

0.0811592

0.08

0.7745

HomeAge

Cat[0/2-6+]

+0.3429802

0.0829005

17.12

0.0000

HomeAge

Cat[3/5-6+]

−0.1348740

0.0863764

2.44

0.1184

PreTYADC

[No-Yes]

−0.5572417

0.0680104

67.13

0.0000

Basic Analysis, Adding Both Poverty and AFDC Status in the Year Before the HOME Index was Scored (PreTYPov, PreTYADC):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

9

127.1525

254.3049

0.000000

Error

4654

1038.9883

C Total

4663

1166.1407

RSquare (U)

0.1090

Observations

4664

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.3642864

0.0832843

805.89

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.5452068

0.0849779

41.16

0.0000

zSES

−0.1657978

0.0852414

3.78

0.0518

zAge

−0.0664416

0.0679088

0.96

0.3279

TestYr[86-90]

Unstable

+0.0029083

0.0904431

0.00

0.9743

TestYr[88-90]

−0.0455863

0.0856239

0.28

0.5944

HomeAge

Cat[0/2-6+]

+0.3145455

0.087279

12.99

0.0003

HomeAge

Cat[3/5-6+]

−0.1002522

0.0896764

1.25

0.2636

PreTYADC

[No-Yes]

−0.3806916

0.0809799

22.10

0.0000

PreTYPov

[No-Yes]

−0.3774093

0.0762828

24.48

0.0000

The High School Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

7

26.90513

53.81026

0.000000

Error

2282

526.92206

C Total

2289

553.82719

RSquare (U)

0.0486

Observations

2290

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.9071274

0.1079507

725.23

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.5655610

0.1331445

18.04

0.0000

zSES

−0.3731384

0.1355456

7.58

0.0059

zAge

−0.1569221

0.0964674

2.65

0.1038

TestYr[86-90]

+0.0755310

0.1295874

0.34

0.5600

TestYr[88-90]

−0.1487970

0.1239539

1.44

0.2300

HomeAge

Cat[0/2-6+]

+0.3159089

0.1236104

6.53

0.0106

HomeAge

Cat[3/5-6+]

−0.0254850

0.1242055

0.04

0.8374

The College Sample: Omitted. The cross-sectional sample included only five cases of children in the bottom decile on the HOME index.

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: The child was in the bottom decile on any of the four developmental indicators (friendliness index, difficulty index, motor and social development index, and behavioral problems index).

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: None.

ADDITIONAL CONTROL VARIABLES: Test year (TestYr, nominal: 1986, 1988, or 1990).

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

5

35.5004

71.00086

0.000000

Error

4885

1534.3911

C Total

4890

1569.8915

RSquare (U)

0.0226

Observations

4891

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.2678463

0.0523382

1877.5

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.3374850

0.0666453

25.64

0.0000

zSES

−0.1454605

0.0662047

4.83

0.0280

zAge

−0.0406925

0.0531744

0.59

0.4441

TestYr[86-90]

+0.1789367

0.0698843

6.56

0.0105

TestYr[88-90]

−0.0070670

0.0677961

0.01

0.9170

Basic Analysis, Adding Poverty Status and Welfare Status in the Year Prior to Testing (PreTYPov, PreTYADC) and Whether the Child was Born out of Wedlock (BStatus):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-Loglikehood

ChiSquare

Pob>ChiSq

Model

8

42.9933

85.98651

0.000000

Error

4329

1350.0000

C Total

4337

1392.9933

RSquare (U)

0.0309

Observations

4338

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.00631470

0.0860525

543.59

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.25174490

0.075657

11.07

0.0009

zSES

−0.13270420

0.0708367

3.51

0.0610

zAge

+0.01726122

0.0575776

0.09

0.7643

TestYr[86-90]

+0.18566228

0.0735475

6.37

0.0116

TestYr[88-90]

+0.01877328

0.072493

0.07

0.7957

PreTYADC

[Yes-No]

+0.13056720

0.0820003

2.54

0.1113

PreTYPov

[Yes-No]

+0.24199190

0.0714256

11.48

0.0007

BStatus

[Illegit-Legit]

+0.01707707

0.0764089

0.05

0.8231

The High School Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

5

13.59824

27.19647

0.000052

Error

2181

704.58153

C Total

2186

718.17976

RSquare (U)

0.0189

Observations

2187

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.3178135

0.0834745

770.99

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.3193097

0.1100786

8.41

0.0037

zSES

−0.3161019

0.1113263

8.06

0.0045

zAge

+0.0231487

0.0778738

0.09

0.7663

TestYr[86-90]

+0.1566625

0.1029997

2.31

0.1283

TestYr[88-90]

+0.0136187

0.0996255

0.02

0.8913

The College Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

5

5.166097

10.33219

0.066352

Error

346

74.395923

C Total

351

79.562020

RSquare (U)

0.0649

Observations

352

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−3.0081530

0.530244

32.18

0.0000

zAFQT89

+0.78938018

0.3581312

4.86

0.0275

zSES

−0.80898430

0.3371107

5.76

0.0164

zAge

Unstable

+0.01498142

0.2822683

0.00

0.9577

TestYr[86-90]

+0.41149788

0.3719686

1.22

0.2686

TestYr[88-90]

−0.34603300

0.3626176

0.91

0.3399

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: The child was in the bottom decile on the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT).

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Includes only children tested at age 6 and older.

ADDITIONAL CONTROL VARIABLES: Test year (TestYr, nominal: 1986, 1988, or 1990) and age at which the child was tested (continuous, in months, m = 107.0,s = 27.1)

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

6

24.69587

49.39173

0.000000

Error

640

186.29121

C Total

646

210.98708

RSquare (U)

0.1170

Observations

647

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.21570603

0.8589707

6.65

0.0099

zAFQT89

−1.11994138

0.1950498

32.97

0.0000

zSES

−0.08185312

0.1820132

0.20

0.6529

zAge

−0.02769682

0.1856376

0.02

0.8814

PPVTAge

−0.00466266

0.0077779

0.36

0.5489

TestYr[86-90]

−0.16528217

0.2424523

0.46

0.4954

TestYr[88-90]

−0.07970146

0.2250145

0.13

0.7232

Basic Analysis Adding Poverty Status in the Year Prior to the PPVT (PreTYPov) and the HOME Index Score Expressed in Standard Scores (zHOME):

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

8

17.72094

35.44187

0.000022

Error

582

153.59135

C Total

590

171.31229

RSquare (U)

0.1034

Oservations

591

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.1291342

0.9565224

4.95

0.0260

zAFQT89

−1.0337219

0.2205373

21.97

0.0000

zSES

−0.0861738

0.2093703

0.17

0.6806

zAge

+0.0296014

0.2145926

0.02

0.8903

TestYr[86-90]

−0.2286597

0.2683805

0.73

0.3942

TestYr[88-90]

−0.0483017

0.2526343

0.04

0.8484

PPVTAge

−0.0067930

0.0085395

0.63

0.4263

zHOME

−0.1945375

0.1842224

1.12

0.2910

PreTYPov

[No-Yes]

+0.0903504

0.2016689

0.20

0.6541

The High School Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Pro>ChiSq

Model

6

7.225514

14.45103

0.024984

Error

254

68.236589

C Total

260

75.462103

RSquare (U)

0.0958

Observations

261

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−0.2705795

1.4383055

0.04

0.08508

zAFQT89

−0.9296387

0.3952333

5.53

0.0187

zSES

−0.0918753

0.3493501

0.07

0.7926

zAge

+0.9267613

0.4137423

5.02

0.0251

TestYr[86-90]

−1.0895230

0.4214316

6.68

0.0097

TestYr[88-90]

+0.3167489

0.3591565

0.78

0.3778

PPVTAge

−0.0287800

0.0132748

4.70

0.0302

The College Sample: Omitted. No cases of a child age 6 or older in the bottom decile on the PPVT in the cross-sectional sample.

Women with Less Than a High School Education:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-Loglikehood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

6

6.239129

12.47826

0.052111

Error

139

70.537266

C Total

145

76.776395

RSquare (U)

0.0813

Observations

146

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>Chisq

Intercept

−3.6384326

1.460085

6.21

0.0127

zAFQT89

−8396200

0.3093784

7.37

0.0066

zSES

+0.0090359

0.2914784

0.00

0.9753

zAge

0.4386216

0.3016201

2.11

0.1459

Test Yr[86-90]

+0.3771342

0.3759239

1.01

0.3158

TestYr[88-90]

−0.4974755

0.3638669

1.87

0.1716

PPVTAge

+0.0133480

0.011851

1.27

0.2600

CHAPTER 11: CRIME

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: The subject was in the top decile on an index of self-reported crime.

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Includes only men.

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

10.02735

20.05469

0.000165

Error

2004

649.74218

C Total

2007

659.76953

RSquare (U)

0.0152

Observations

2008

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.22005314

0.0807852

755.20

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.26980189

0.0902397

8.94

0.0028

zSES

+0.13972790

0.0979853

2.03

0.1539

zAge

−0.20372081

0.080365

6.43

0.0112

The High School Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

4.28228

8.564558

0.035677

Error

661

201.83770

C Total

664

206.11998

RSquare (U)

0.0208

Observations

665

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−2.35032467

0.1445857

264.24

0.0000

zAFQT89

+0.2120838

0.2006406

1.12

0.2905

zSES

+0.3653400

0.1981511

3.40

0.0652

zAge

−0.26122639

0.1457019

3.21

0.0730

The College Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

2.959829

5.919657

0.115585

Error

276

46.577870

C Total

279

49.537698

RSquare (U)

0.0597

Observations

280

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−333070801

0.7047663

22.33

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.63468357

0.5194501

1.49

0.2218

zSES

+0.80027390

0.4591207

3.04

0.0813

zAge

+0.39913230

0.306701

1.69

0.1931

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: The subject was interviewed in a correctional facility in one or more interviews from 1979 to 1990.

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Includes only men.

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

23.31444

46.62887

0.000000

Error

1941

219.90125

C Total

1944

243.21569

RSquare (U)

0.0959

Observations

1945

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−3.77716689

0.1717938

483.41

0.0000

zAFQT89

−0.89666260

0.1753619

26.14

0.0000

zSES

−0.15554116

0.1806149

0.74

0.3891

zAge

+0.0782992

0.1468634

0.28

0.5939

The High School Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

4.058464

8.116928

0.043656

Error

712

39.850585

C Total

715

43.909049

RSquare (U)

0.0924

Observations

716

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−4.96578763

0.4806319

106.75

0.000

zAFQT89

−1.07006679

0.443121

5.83

0.0157

zSES

−0.16211965

0.4642977

0.12

0.7270

zAge

+0.46727190

0.367754

1.61

0.2039

The College Sample: Omitted. No one in the cross-sectional College Sample was ever interviewed in jail.

CHAPTER 12: CIVILITY AND CITIZENSHIP

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Did the subject score “yes” on the Middle Class Values Index?

SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Excludes never-married persons who met all the other conditions of the index and men who were physically unable to work or not in the labor force because they were attending school.

Basic Analysis:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

161.7136

323.4273

0.000000

Error

3025

1937.4328

C Total

3028

2099.1465

RSquare (U)

0.0770

Observations

3029

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

−0.06385330

0.038934

2.69

0.1010

zAFQT89

+0.63250551

0.0528176

143.41

0.0000

zSES

+0.24495537

0.0520624

22.14

0.0000

zAge

+0.00663732

0.0401929

0.03

0.8688

The High School Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

3.00926

6.018528

0.110712

Error

1158

781.85686

C Total

1161

784.86612

RSquare (U)

0.0038

Observations

1162

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

+0.39447706

0.0611821

41.57

0.0000

zAFQT89

+0.16814512

0.0931181

3.26

0.0710

zSES

−0.17993040

0.0903402

3.97

0.0464

zAge

+0.01887678

0.0621776

0.09

0.7614

The College Sample:

Whole-Model Test

Source

DF

-LogLikelihood

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Model

3

3.26859

6.537177

0.088208

Error

398

200.09145

C Total

401

203.36004

RSquare (U)

0.0161

Observations

402

Parameter Estimates

Term

Estimate

Std Error

ChiSquare

Prob>ChiSq

Intercept

+0.99516202

0.2386798

17.38

0.0000

zAFQT89

+0.39251349

0.1988073

3.90

0.0483

zSES

+0.03692158

0.168585

0.05

0.8266

zAge

+0.13876137

0.1336384

1.08

0.2991