Coronavirus outbreak - Covid-19 pandemic (2020)

Conclusion

When China controls the virus, and outbreaks in other countries don't blow up and spread to more populations, we might see the case count begin to fall and the emergency for public health end. Yet there are already so many cases across China, as well as the very real possibility that in countries with poor health systems, the virus is spreading, undetected, that the likelihood of containment is looking less likely by the day.

Unless 2019nCoV is not included, "if it continues to accelerate, we may very well encounter a pandemic. That will mean more sicknesses and deaths not only in China, but also in other countries around the world, as cases expand to full-blown outbreaks from one-off travelers or small clusters. Therefore, public health officials should move from trying to contain the virus to minimizing its effects — building hospitals to isolate and care for patients, making recommendations for "social distancing" (such as canceling public events), and designing experimental procedures for the many people who may need hospital care.

But again, even though this virus is spreading all over the world— it may not be very lethal. In the best-case scenario, this epidemic may look more like swine flu H1N1 than either SARS or Spanish flu. Once H1N1 was first identified in 2009 and spread across the globe, major concerns about its lethality were expressed. US schools closed, North American citizens quarantined as they landed in other countries, and flights cancelled. Not only did those steps fail to contain the virus, it turned out that H1N1 wasn't dangerous enough.

There are a few approaches that could stop this outbreak. Perhaps public health initiatives — rapidly reporting cases, insulating infected people — will stop this corona virus from spreading. Because this is a zoonotic disease which originated from an animal, it would also help to find and remove the source. Or perhaps a vaccine or antiviral will be discovered quickly to counter a larger outbreak (though that would probably take years). Perhaps the coming warmer weather seasons will play a role in slowing down the virus, at least. Corona viruses are viruses from winter time. Such viruses do not spread when the weather is warm and damp as well as when the weather is cold and dry.

There's eventually the risk that the virus will actually die out. The outbreaks of illness are kind of like flames. The Fire is the Virus. The power is vulnerable people. Finally, if it runs out of kindling, a fire burns itself out. An outbreak of the virus will end when it starts finding people susceptible to infection.