The Weather of the Future: Heat Waves, Extreme Storms, and Other Scenes from a Climate-Changed Planet - Heidi Cullen (2010)

Notes

1. Kohut, A., Keeter, S., Doherty, C., Dimock, M., and Remez, M. Economy, Jobs Trump All Other Policy Priorities (Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, Washington, DC, 2009).

2. Weber, E. U., The Utility of Measuring and Modeling Perceived Risk, in Choice, Decision, and Measurement: Essays in Honor of R. Duncan Luce, edited by A. A. J. Marely (Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Mahwah, NJ, 1997), pp. 45–57.

3. Weber, E., Experience-Based and Description-Based Perceptions of Long-Term Risk: Why Global Warming Does Not Scare Us (Yet). Climatic Change 77 (1–2), 103–120 (2006). See also Marx, S. M. et al., Communication and Mental Processes: Experiential and Analytic Processing of Uncertain Climate Information. Global Environmental Change 17 (1), 47–58 (2007).

4. Hirshleifer, D., and Shumway, T., Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather. Journal of Finance 58 (3), 1009–1032 (2003).

5. Sunstein, C. R., The Availability Heuristic, Intuitive Cost-Benefit Analysis, and Climate Change. Climatic Change 77 (1–2), 195–210 (2006).

1. Imbrie, J., and Imbrie, K. P., Ice Ages: Solving the Mystery (Enslow Publishers, Short Hills, NJ, 1979).

2. Weart, S. R. ed., The Discovery of Global Warming (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 2003).

3. Agassiz, L., Etudes sur les glaciers (privately published, Neuchâtel, 1840).

4. Fourier, J., Remarques générales sur les températures du Globe Terrestre et des espaces planétaires. Annales de Chemie et de Physique 27, 136–167 (1824).

5. Burchfield, J. A., John Tyndall—A Biographical Sketch, in John Tyndall, Essays on a Natural Philosopher (Royal Dublin Society, Dublin, 1981).

6. Arrhenius, S., On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground. Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science 41, 237–275 (1896).

7. Ruddiman, W. F., Earth’s Climate: Past and Future (W. H. Freeman and Company, New York, 2001).

1. Lynch, P., The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction: Richardson’s Dream (Cambridge University Press, New York, 2006).

2. Somerville, R. C. J., The Forgiving Air: Understanding Environmental Change, 2nd ed. (American Meteorological Society, Boston, 2008).

3. Hegerl, G. C., and Zwiers, F. W., Understanding and Attributing Climate Change, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 2007). See also Stouffer, R. J., Hegerl, G. C., and Tett, S. F. B., A Comparison of Surface Air Temperature Variability in Three 1000-Year Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Integrations. Journal of Climate 13, 513–537 (1999).

4. Hansen, J., et al., A Pinatubo Climate Modeling Investigation, in The Mount Pinatubo Eruption: Effects on the Atmosphere and Climate, edited by G. Fiocco, D. Fua, and G. Visconti (Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, Germany, 1996), pp. 233–272.

5. Duffy, P. B., Santer, B. D., and Wigley, T. M. L., Solar Variability Does Not Explain Late-20th-Century Warming. Physics Today (January 2009), 48–49 (2009). See also North, G. R., Wu, Q., and Stevens, M., in Solar Variability and Its Effect on Climate, edited by J. M. Pap and P. Fox (American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 2004), Vol. Geophysical Monograph 141.

6. Thompson, D. W. J., and Solomon, S., Recent Stratospheric Climate Trends as Evidenced in Radiosonde Data: Global Structure and Tropospheric Linkages. Journal of Climate 18, 4785–4795 (2005). See also Ramaswamy, V. et al., Anthropogenic and Natural Influences in the Evolution of Lower Stratospheric Cooling. Science 311 (5764), 1138–1141 (2006).

1. Karl, T. R., et al., Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate: Regions of Focus (U.S. Climate Change Science Program, 2008).

2. Schär, C., et al., The Role of Increasing Temperature Variability for European Summer Heat Waves. Nature 427 (6972), 332–336 (2004).

3. Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A., and Allen, M. R., Human Contribution to the European Heat Wave of 2003. Nature 432 (7017), 610–614 (2004).

4. Karl, T. R., Melillo, J., and Peterson, T. C., Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (U.S. Climate Change Science Program, 2009).

5. Meehl, G. A., and Tebaldi, C., More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century. Science 305 (5686), 994–997 (2004).

1. deMenocal, P. B., et al., Abrupt Onset and Termination of the African Humid Period: Rapid Climate Responses to Gradual Insolation Forcing. Quaternary Science Reviews 19, 347–361 (2000). See also deMenocal, P. B., Ortiz, J., Guilerson, T., and Sarnthein, M., Coherent High—and Low-Latitude Climate Variability During the Holocene Warm Period. Science 288, 2198–2202 (2000).

2. Shanahan, T. M., et al., Atlantic Forcing of Persistent Drought in West Africa. Science 324, 377–380 (2009).

3. Bobe, R., and Behrensmeyer, A. K., The Expansion of Grassland Ecosystems in Africa in Relation to Mammalian Evolution and the Origin of the Genus Homo. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 207, 399–420 (2004). See also deMenocal, P. B., Plio-Pleistocene African Climate. Science 270 (5233), 53–59 (1995).

4. Feakins, S. J., deMenocal, P. B., and Eglinton, T. I., Biomarker Records of Late Neogene Changes in Northeast African Vegetation. Geology 33 (12), 977–980 (2005).

5. deMenocal, P. B., African Climate Change and Faunal Evolution During the Pliocene-Pleistocene. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 220, 3–24 (2004).

6. Kandji, S. T., Verchot, L., and Mackensen, J., 2006.

7. Held, I., Delworth, T. L., Lu, J., Findell, K. L., and Knutson, T. R., Simulation of Sahel Drought in the 20th and 21st Centuries. PNAS 102 (50), 17891–17896 (2005).

8. Hulme, M., Climatic Perspectives on Sahelian Dessication: 1973–1998. Global Environmental Change 11 (19–29) (2001).

9. Herrmann, S. M., and Hutchinson, C. F., The Changing Contexts of the Desertification Debate. Journal of Arid Environments 63, 538–555 (2005).

10. Olsson, L., and Hall-Beyer, M., Greening of the Sahel in Encyclopedia of Earth, edited by C. J. Cleveland (Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment, Washington, DC, 2008).

11. Hayward, D. F., and Oguntoyinbo, J. S., The Climatology of West Africa (Barnes & Noble, 1987).

12. Nicholson, S. E., Climatic Variations in the Sahel and Other African Regions During the Past Five Centuries. Journal of Arid Environments 1 (3–24) (1978).

13. Xue, Y., and Shukla, K., The Influence of Land Surface Properties on Sahel Climate. Part I: Desertification. Journal of Climate 6, 2232–2245 (1993).

14. Folland, C. K., Palmer, T. N., and Parker, D. E., Sahel Rainfall and Worldwide Sea Temperatures, 1901–85. Nature 302, 602–607 (1986).

15. Giannini, A., Saravanan, R., and Chang, P., Oceanic Forcing of Sahel Rainfall on Interannual to Interdecadal Time Scales. Science 302 (1027–1030) (2003).

16. IPCC, 2007. See also Patricola, C. M., and Cook, K. H., Northern African Climate at the End of the Twenty-First Century: An Integrated Application of Regional and Global Climate Models. Climate Dynamics (2009).

17. Biasutti, M., and Sobel, A. H., Delayed Seasonal Cycle and African Monsoon in a Warmer Climate. Geophys. Res. Lett submitted (2009).

18. Paeth, H., and Thamm, H. P., Regional Modelling of Future African Climate North of 15 Degrees S Including Greenhouse Warming and Land Degradation. Climatic Change 83 (3), 401–427 (2007).

19. Polgreen, L. In Niger, Trees and Crops Turn Back the Desert, in The New York Times (February 2007).

20. Reij, C., Tappan, G., and Belemire, A., Changing Land Management Practices and Vegetation on the Central Plateau of Burkina Faso (1968–2002). Journal of Arid Environments 63, 642–659 (2005).

21. Tappan, G., 2009. See also WRI, 2008.

22. Reij, C., and Smaling, E. M. A., Analyzing Successes in Agriculture and Land Management in Sub-Saharan Africa: Is Macro-Level Gloom Obscuring Positive Micro-Level Change? Land Use Policy 25, 410–420 (2008).

23. Paeth, H., Born, K., Girmes, R., Podzun, R., and Jacob, D., Regional Climate Change in Tropical and Northern Africa due to Greenhouse Forcing and Land Use Changes. Journal of Climate 22, 114–132 (2009).

24. Butt, T. A., McCarl, B. A., Angerer, J., Dyke, P. T., and Stuth, J. W., The Economic Food Security Implications of Climate Change in Mali. Climatic Change 68, 355–378 (2005).

25. Sullivan, G. R. et al., National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, edited by S. Goodman (CNA, Alexandria, VA, 2007), pp. 63.

26. Chakravarty, S. et al., Sharing Global CO2 Emission Reductions Among One Billion High Emitters. PNAS 106 (43), 11884–11888 (2009).

27. Bierbaum, R., and Fay, M., 2010.

28. Ki Moon, B., A Climate Culprit in Darfur, in The Washington Post (June 16, 2007).

29. Mabey, N. Delivering Climate Security: International World Responses to a Climate Changed World, in Whitehall Paper, edited by RUSI (Routledge Journals, Oxford, U.K., 2008), Vol. 69.

30. Burke, M. B. B., Miguel, E., Satynath, S., Dykema, J. A., and Lobell, D., Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in Africa. PNAS 106 (49), 20670–20674 (2009).

1. Veron, J. E. N., A Reef in Time: The Great Barrier Reef from Beginning to End (Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 2008).

2. Hoegh-Guldberg, O. et al., Coral Reefs under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification. Science 318 (5857), 1737–1742 (2007). See also Kleypas, J. A., Buddemeier, R. W., and Gattuso, J. P., The Future of Coral Reefs in an Age of Global Change. International Journal of Earth Sciences 90, 426 (2001). See also Kleypas, J. A., and Eakin, C. M., Scientists’ Perceptions of Threats to Coral Reefs: Results of a Survey of Coral Reef Researchers. Bulletin of Marine Science 80 (No. 2), 419–436 (2007).

3. Carpenter, K. E., et al., One-Third of Reef-Building Corals Face Elevated Extinction Risk from Climate Change and Local Impacts. Science 321 (5888), 560–563 (2008).

4. Scott C. Doney, V. J. F., Richard A. Feely, Joan A. Kleypas, Ocean Acidification: The Other CO2 Problem. Annual Review of Marine Science Vol. 1, 169–192 (2009).

5. De’ath, G., Lough, J. M., and Fabricius, K. E., Declining Coral Calcification on the Great Barrier Reef. Science 323 (5910), 116–119 (2009).

6. Caldeira, K., and Wickett, M. E., Ocean Model Predictions of Chemistry Changes from Carbon Dioxide Emissions to the Atmosphere and Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 110, C09S04 (2005). See also Caldeira, K., and Wickett, M. E., Anthropogenic Carbon and Ocean pH. Nature 425, 365 (2003).

7. Lough, J. M., 10th Anniversary Review: A Changing Climate for Coral Reefs. Journal of Environmental Monitoring 10 (1), 21–29 (2008).

8. Marshall, P., and Schuttenberg, H., A Reef Manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching (Australian Government Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Townsville, Australia, 2006), p. 176.

9. NOAA, Available at http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/ (2009).

10. Henson, B., Heat, Fire, and Fear in Australia, in UCAR Magazine (UCAR, 2009).

11. Interim Report, edited by State Government of Victoria (Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, Victoria, Australia 2009).

1. Lund, J., et al., Envisioning Futures for the Sacramento-San Jaoquin Delta (Public Policy Institute of California, San Francisco, CA, 2007).

2. Vicuna, S., Hanemann, M., and Dale, L., 2006.

3. Lund, J., et al., Comparing Futures for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Public Policy Institute of California, San Francisco, CA, 2008), p. 147.

4. Mastrandrea, M. D., Tebaldi, C., Snyder, C. P., and Schneider, S. H., 2009.

5. Cobb, K., Charles, C. D., Cheng, H., and Edwards, R. L., El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific Climate during the Last Millennium. Nature 424, 271–276 (2003).

6. Guilyardi, E., et al., Understanding El Niño in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: Progress and Challenges. BAMS 3, 325–340 (2009).

7. Luers, A. L., Cayan, D. R., Franco, G., Hanemann, M., and Croes, B., 2006.

8. Rajagopalan, B., et al., Water Supply Risk on the Colorado River: Can Management Mitigate? Water Resources Research 45 (8) (2009).

1. ITK 5000 Years of Inuit History and Heritage, edited by Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami (Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami, Ottawa, Canada, 2009).

2. Diamond, J., Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (Penguin Group, New York, 2005).

10. Condon, R., Ogina, J., and Elders, H., The Northern Copper Inuit: A History (University of Toronto Press, Toronto, 1996).

3. Hall, C. F., Life with the Esquimaux (Sampson Low, Son and Marston, London, 1864).

4. Ford, J., et al., Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Arctic: The Case of Nunavut, Canada. Arctic 60 (2), 150–166 (2007).

5. Fox, S., “These Are Things That Are Really Happening”: Inuit Perspectives on the Evidence and Impacts of Climate Change in Nunavut, in The Earth Is Faster Now: Indigenous Observations of Arctic Environmental Change, edited by I. Krupnik and D. Jolly (Arctic Research Consortium of the United States, Fairbanks, Alaska, 2002), pp. 12–53.

6. Laidler, G., Ford, J., Gough, W. A., and Ikummaq, T., Assessing Inuit Vulnerability to Sea Ice Change in Igloolik, Nunavut. Climatic Change (in press, 2009).

7. INAC, The Food Mail Program, Available at http://www.ainc-inac.gc.ca/nth/fon/fm/index-eng.asp (2009).

8. Orlove, B., Chiang, J. C. H., and Cane, M. A., Ethnoclimatology in the Andes: A Cross-Disciplinary Study Uncovers a Scientific Basis for the Scheme Andean Potato Farmers Traditionally Use to Predict the Coming Rains. American Scientist 90 (5), 428–435 (2002). See also Orlove, B. S., Chiang, J. C. H., and Cane, M. A., Forecasting Andean Rainfall and Crop Yield from the Influence of El Niño on Pleiades Visibility. Nature 403, 68–71 (2000). See also Ford, J. D., Pearce, T., Gilligan, J., Smit, B., and Oakes, J., Climate Change and Hazards Associated with Ice Use in Northern Canada. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 40 (4), 647–659 (2008).

9. Pearce, T., et al., Inuit Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change in Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories, Canada. Polar Record 45 (1–21) (2009).

11. NWMB, 2004.

12. Ainley, D. G., Tynan, C. T., and Stirling, I., Sea Ice: A Critical Habitat for Polar Marine Animals and Birds, in Sea Ice: An Introduction to Its Physics, Chemistry, Biology, and Geology., edited by D. N. Thomas and G. S. Dieckmann (Blackwell Science, Oxford, U.K. 2003), pp. 240–266.

13. Ferguson, S. H., Climate Change and Ringed Seal (Phoca hispida) Recruitment in Western Hudson Bay. Marine Mammal Science 21 (1), 121–135 (2005).

14. Krupnik, I., and Jolly, D., eds., The Earth Is Faster Now: Indigenous Observations of Arctic Environmental Change (Arctic Research Consortium of the United States, Fairbanks, Alaska, 2002).

15. Manabe, S., and Stouffer, R. J., Sensitivity of a Global Climate Model to an Increase of CO2 in the Atmosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research 85 (C10), 5529–5554 (1980).

16. Holland, M. M., and Bitz, C. M., Polar Amplification of Climate Change in Coupled Models. Climate Dynamics 21 (221–232) (2003).

17. Serreze, M. C., Barrett, A. P., Stroeve, J. C., Kindig, D. N., and Holland, M. M., The Emergence of Surface-Based Arctic Amplification. The Cryosphere 3, 11–19 (2009).

18. NSIDC, Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis (2008).

19. Serreze, M., and Stroeve, J. C., Standing on the Brink. Nature Reports Climate Change (2008).

20. Gearheard, S., 2009.

21. Stroeve, J. C., Holland, M. M., Meier, W., Scambos, T., and Serreze, M., Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Faster than Forecast. Geophysical Research Letters 34 (L09501) (2007).

22. Maslanik, J. A., et al., A Younger, Thinner Arctic Ice Cover: Increased Potential for Rapid, Extensive Sea-Ice Loss. Geophysical Research Letters 34 (L24501) (2007).

23. Zhang, X., and Walsh, J., Journal of Climate 19 (2006).

24. Holland, M. M., Bitz, C. M., and Tremblay, B., Future Abrupt Reductions in the Summer Arctic Sea Ice. Geophysical Research Letters 33 (L23503) (2006).

1. Diamond, J., Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (Penguin Group, New York, 2005).

2. Gautier, D. L., et al., Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic. Science 324 (5931), 1175–1179 (2009).

3. Lenton, T. M., et al., Tipping Elements in the Earth’s Climate System. 105 (6), 1786–1793 (2008).

4. Funk, M., Greenland Rising, in Outside (2009).

5. Saabye, H. E., Brudstykker sd en dagbog holden i Groenland i aarene 1770–1778, in Medd. Gronland, edited by H. Oesterman (1942).

6. van Loon, H., and Rogers, J. C., The See-Saw in Winter Temperatures Between Greenland and Northern Europe. Part I. Monthly Weather Review 104 (1978).

7. Hurrell, J. W., and Deser, C., North Atlantic Climate Variability: The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Marine Systems 78 (1), 28–41 (2009).

8. Johannessen, O. M., Khvorostovsky, K., Miles, M. W., and Bobylev, L. P., Recent Ice-Sheet Growth in the Interior of Greenland. Science Express (2005).

9. Zwally, H. J., et al., Mass Changes of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and Shelves and Contributions to Sea-Level Rise: 1992–2002. Journal of Glaciology 51 (175), 509–527 (2005).

10. Hanna, E., et al., Runoff and Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet: 1958–2003. Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (D13108) (2005).

11. Pritchard, H. D., Arthern, R. J., Vaughan, D. J., and Edwards, L. A., Extensive Dynamic Thinning on the Margins of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Nature 461 (7263) (2009).

12. Bindschadler, R. Science 311, 1720–1721 (2006).

13. Krabill, W., et al., Greenland Ice Sheet: High-Elevation Balance and Peripheral Thinning. Science 289, 428–430 (2000).

14. Rignot, E., and Kanagaratnam, P., Changes in the Velocity Structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Science 311 (5763), 986–990 (2006).

15. Ekstrom, G., Nettles, M., and Tasi, V. C., Seasonality and Increasing Frequency of Greenland Glacial Earthquakes. Science 311, 1756–1758 (2006).

16. Joughin, I., Abdalati, W., and Fahnestock, M., Large Fluctuations in Speed on Greenland’s Jakobshavn Isbræ Glacier. Nature 432, 608–610 (2004).

17. Steffensen, J. P., et al., High-Resolution Greenland Ice Core Data Show Abrupt Climate Change Happens in Few Years. Science 321 (5889), 680–684 (2008).

18. Fluckiger, J., Climate Change: Did You Say “Fast”? Science 321 (5889), 650–651 (2008).

19. Stouffer, R. J., et al., GFDL’s CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part IV: Idealized Climate Response. Journal of Climate 19 (5), 723–740 (2006). See also Fluckiger, J., Knutti, R., White, J. W. C., and Renssen, H., Modeled Seasonality of Glacial Abrupt Climate Events. Climate Dynamics 31, 633–645 (2008).

20. Kukla, G. J., et al., Last Interglacial Climates. Quaternary Research 58, 2–13 (2002). See also Oppo, D. W., McManus, J. F., and Cullen, J. L., Evolution and Demise of the Last Interglacial Warmth in the Subpolar North Atlantic. Quaternary Science Reviews 25, 3268–3277 (2006).

21. Huybrechts, P., and De Wolde, J., The Dynamic Response of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to Multiple-Century Climatic Warming. Journal of Climate 12, 2169–2188 (1999).

22. Stroeve, J., Holland, M. M., Meier, W., Scambos, T., and Serreze, M., Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Faster than Forecast. Geophysical Research Letters 34, L09501 (2007).

23. Hansen, J. E., A Slippery Slope: How Much Global Warming Constitutes “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference”? An Editorial Essay. Climatic Change 68, 269–279 (2005).

24. Otto-Bliesner, B. L., et al., Simulating Arctic Climate Warmth and Icefield Retreat in the Last Interglaciation. Science 311, 1751–1753 (2006).

25. Portions of Arctic Coastline Eroding, No End in Sight, Says New Study (ScienceDaily, December 17, 2009).

26. Kirby, R. R., and Beaugrand, G., Trophic Amplification of Climate Warming. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 276 (1676) (2009).

27. ICON Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Initiative: A Canadian Clean Energy Opportunity, edited by ICON (2009), p. 16.

28. DOE Methane Hydrate: Future Energy Within Our Grasp, edited by Office of Fossil Energy (U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, 2007).

29. Walter, K. M., Zimov, S. A., Chanton, J. P., Verbyla, D., and Chapin III, F. S., Methane Bubbling from Siberian Thaw Lakes as a Positive Feedback to Climate Warming. Nature 443, 71–75 (2006).

30. Kennedy, M., Mrofka, D., and von der Borch, C., Snowball Earth Termination by Destabilization of Equatorial Permafrost Methane Clathrate. Nature 453, 642–645 (2008).

31. Walter Anthony, K., Methane: A Menace Surfaces, in Scientific American (2009), Vol. 301, pp. 68–75.

1. Webster, P. J., Moore, A., Loschnigg, J., and Leban, M., Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98. Nature 401, 356–360 (1999).

2. Del Ninno, C., Dorosh, P. A., Smith, L. C., and Roy, D., 2001.

3. NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) (Ministry of Environment and Forest Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, 2005), p. 46.

4. Cruz, R. V., et al., Asia. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by M. L. Parry et al. (Cambridge, U.K., 2007), pp. 469–506.

5. Webster, P. J., et al., A Three-Tier Overlapping Prediction Scheme: Tools for Strategic and Tactical Decisions in the Developing World, in Predictability of Weather and Climate, edited by T. N. Palmer (Cambridge University Press, 2006), pp. 645–673.

6. UNDP World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (United Nations Population Division, 2008).

7. MEF Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2008 (Ministry of Environment and Forests Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2008), p. 68.

8. Christensen, J. H., et al., 2007: Regional Climate Projections in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al. (Cambridge, U.K., 2007).

9. Agrawala, S., Ota, T., Ahmed, A. U., Smith, J., and van Aalst, M., 2003.

10. Colette, A. Case Studies on Climate Change and World Heritage (UNESCO, Paris, 2007), p. 79.

11. Friedman, L., Bangladesh: Where the Climate Exodus Begins, in Greenwire (2009).

12. Mool, P. K., et al., Inventory of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes, and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods: Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region, edited by ICIMOD (ICIMOD, Bhutan, 2001), p. 254.

13. Nayar, A., When the Ice Melts. Nature 461, 1042–1046 (2009).

14. Rodell, M., Velicogna, I., and Famiglietti, J.S., Satellite-Based Estimates of Groundwater Depletion in India. Nature 460, 999–1002 (2009).

15. Cruz, R. V., et al., Asia. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by M.L. Parry et al. (Cambridge, U.K., 2007), pp. 469–506.

16. Lobell, D. B., et al., Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030. Science 319, 607–610 (2008).

1. Eddy, D. Y2K Discussion List, in Y2K Discussion List, edited by Peter de Jager’s (1995).

2. Rosenzweig, C., and Solecki, W., eds., Metro East CoastReport for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (Columbia Earth Institute, New York, 2001).

3. DEP, 2008.

4. Rosenzweig, C., et al., Climate Risk Information, in New York City Panel on Climate Change (New York, 2009).

5. Rosenzweig, C., and Solecki, W., Climate Change and a Global City: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, in Metro East Coast Assessment (Columbia Earth Institute, New York, 2001), p. 207.

6. PlaNYC PlaNYC: A Greener, Greater, New York (Mayor’s Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability, New York, NY, 2007).

7. Rosenzweig, C., et al., Managing Climate Change Risks in New York City’s Water System: Assessment and Adaptation Planning. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 12 (8), 1391–1409 (2007).

8. PlaNYC PlaNYC Progress Report 2009 (Mayor’s Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability, New York, NY, 2009), p. 43.

9. Gray, W., Landfall Probability Table in United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project, edited by Tropical Meteorology Research Project (Fort Collins, CO, 2009).

10. Chan, S., Why the Subways Flood, in The New York Times (August 8, 2007).

11. USGS National Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Future Sea-level Rise, in USGS Fact Sheet FS-076–00 (Washington, DC, 2000).

12. Ackerman, F., and Stanton, E. A., Climate Change and the U.S. Economy: The Costs of Inaction (Tufts University and Stockholm Environment Institute, Medford, MA, 2008).

13. Yin, J., Schlesinger, M. E., and Stouffer, R. J., Model Projections of Rapid Sea-level Rise on the Northeast Coast of the United States. Nature Geoscience 2, 262–266 (2009).

14. Kopp, R. E., Personal Communication (Princeton, NJ, Dec. 2, 2009).

1. Weiss, H., et al., The Genesis and Collapse of 3rd Millenium North Mesopotamian Civilization. Science 261, 994–1004 (1993).

2. Cullen, H. M., and deMenocal, P. B., The Possible Role of Climate in the Collapse of the Akkadian Empire: Evidence from the Deep Sea. Geology 20 (8), 379–382 (2000).

3. UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (United Nations Environment Programme/World Meteorological Organization Information Unit on Climate Change [IUCC] on behalf of the Interim Secretariat of the Convention, Switzerland, 2002).

4. Solomon, S., Garcia, R. R., Rowland, S. F., and Wuebbles, D. J., On the Depletion of Antarctic Ozone. Nature 321, 755–758 (1986).

5. Solomon, S., Plattner, G., and Friedlingstein, P., Irreversible Climate Change Due to Carbon Dioxide Emissions. PNAS 106 (6), 1704–1709 (2009).

6. IPCC Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in Climate Change 2007, edited by S. Solomon et al. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007), p. 996.

7. Revkin, A. C., Scientist at Work: Susan Solomon; Melding Science and Diplomacy to Run a Global Climate Review, in The New York Times (February 2007).

8. Diamond, J., Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (Penguin Group, New York, 2005).

9. Frame, D. J., et al., Warming Caused by Cumulative Carbon Emissions Towards the Trillionth Tonne. Nature 458, 1163–1166 (2009).

10. Meinshausen, M., et al., Greenhouse-Gas Emission Targets for Limiting Global Warming to 2°C. Nature 458, 1158–1162 (2009).

11. EIA International Energy Outlook 2009 (EIA, 2009), p. 274.

1. Meehl, G. A., Tebaldi, C., Walton, G., Easterling, D., and McDaniel, L., The Relative Increase of Record High Maximum Temperatures Compared to Record Low Minimum Temperatures, in the U.S. Geophysical Research Letters (in press).

2. CCSP Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean and U.S. Pacific Islands, edited by T. R. Karl et al. (Department of Commerce, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Washington, DC, 2008), p. 164.

3. Meehl, G. A., and Tebaldi, C., More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century. Science 305 (5686), 994–997 (2004).

4. Arnell, N. W., Global Warming, River Flows and Water Resources (Wiley, Chichester, U.K., 1996). See also Gleick, P. H., Methods for Evaluating the Regional Hydrologic Effects of Global Climate Changes. Journal of Hydrology 88, 97–116 (1986).

5. Zimmernan, R., and Cusker, M., Institutional Decision-making, in Climate Change and a Global City: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and ChangeMetro East Coast, edited by C. Rosenzweig and W. D. Solecki (Columbia Earth Institute New York, 2001).

6. MacCracken, M. C., Moore, F., and Topping, J. C., eds., Sudden and Disruptive Climate Change (Earthscan, London, 2008). See also MacCracken, M. C., Prospects for Future Climate Change Reasons for Early Action. Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association 58, 735–786 (2008).